Future Looks Brighter Thanks to the California Solar Initiative

On January 12th the California Public Utilities Commission (PUC) approved the California Solar Initiative (CSI), which provides $2.9 billion in incentives from 2007 – 2017 to help promote the development of solar power. This program is aimed at reducing the costs of solar technology for State consumers as California move towards cleaner energy solutions. The CSI represents the largest program of its kind in the United States, setting an example that many hope will lead to nationwide growth opportunities within the renewable energy arena.

“The California Solar Initiative is the largest solar program in the country and I hope it will be a model for other states. The program will be a major source of dependable and environmentally friendly electricity, and is a major tool in the State’s promise to address climate change and meet the Governor’s goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” stated PUC Commissioner Dian M. Grueneich.

It is believed that this program will help to stabilize and solidify the market for solar technology, benefiting consumers as well as participating companies operating within this space. Dr. Robert Wilder, CEO & Founder of Wildershares, LLC and Manager of the WilderHill Clean Energy Index explains, “Many solar companies have already sold out all their panels for this entire year and some into the next year, so this isn’t so much going to create wanted demand – the demand is there now. Instead, it’s going to ensure a more stable scenario for the future. Producers of raw silicon for panels will ramp up with less risk now, as they look five or ten years out.

This Initiative will also help kick-start other States and even Nations to grow their solar programs. Germany and Japan have benefited so far with the jobs created and growth from their ambitious programs, and now it’s California’s turn. I’m proud that the State is going to generate economic growth and new jobs, enacting this smarter energy policy that’s a win-win all around.”

I am looking forward to evaluating the impact that this initiative will have not only for Californians, but for many of the other states that have aggressively been pursuing clean energy

The Solar Market Marches On – Major Recent Trends in Cleantech

I thought for todays post I’d summarize some of the major trends that I see in the solar market:

1. IPOs and VCs Are Stilll Headed Up – Solar is still the biggest thing in cleantech or energy tech from an investor standpoint. I think a solar company has won the NREL Growth Forum award 3 of the last 4 years. Suntech Power just had a big solar splash on NYSE, listed at $19 and is up to $35/share now. (we discussed this on Cleantechblog recently) Q-Cells AG in Germany saw similar results, and we’ve seen numerous little IPOs in the sector. Just wait until one of the real power players like Shell or Kyocera or BP IPOs their solar unit.

2. Everyone’s adding capacity – Every time I turn around their is another press release on solar companies large and small expanding.

3. New power players are emerging. See comment on Suntech Power above (only a couple of years old, as well as my previous post on Honda, More Cleantech News – Honda Enters the Solar Business.

4. The Developing World Will Become a Major Driver – See Peter Beadle’s previous post on Cleantechblog

5. But the big players, Sharp, BP, Kyocera, Shell, etc. are still the big players, and aren’t showing any signs of relinquishing the title.

Goldman Goes Green

Just before Thanksgiving, the prestigious investment banking firm Goldman Sachs announced a broad-reaching environmental policy.

Goldman Sachs Environmental Policy

The policy contains several important pledges. Most tangibly, Goldman aims to make $1 billion available for investments in renewable energy (and this is not mere talk, as Goldman bought the wind developer Zilkha earlier in 2005). Goldman promises to take environmental considerations more seriously when considering investment opportunities, for instance refusing to invest in projects that do not comply with local environmental laws. Goldman also intends to become more active in shaping environmental public policy, including the establishment of a think-tank to promote market-based approaches for dealing with environmental concerns.

But perhaps the biggest impact Goldman can have on the environment is by placing pressure on their clients — the largest corporations worldwide. Because Goldman is the channel to literally trillions of dollars in the global capital markets, what Goldman says really matters to clients. Goldman’s clients need to keep the doors open to the investor community, with a good reputation. If Goldman follows through on their environmental pledges, and uses “carrot-and-stick” with its clients to improve their environmental performance, then real beneficial action is likely to in fact take place.

Goldman joins GE and Wal-Mart as major global corporations with huge influence publicly committing to improving the environment in the past year. Titans of industry such as these will be critical in dragging the laggards — the big oil companies, auto manufacturers, electric utilities — into more responsible and proactive environmental practices.

Cleantech News – California’s $3 Billion Solar Initiative Broken Down

California PUC has made a huge splash with its solar rebate program. The pizzazz angle is quite good.

“The goal is to install solar energy on 1 million buildings statewide by 2017, generating 3,000 megawatts of electricity — the equivalent of six large power plants, or enough to serve 2.3 million people. By comparison, all the solar power installed in all 50 states today has a capacity of about 400 megawatts.” – San Jose Mercury News

CPUC Solar Initiative Page

But when we calm down the rhetoric, there are a couple of things to consider.

  1. On the surface, the global solar industry is roughly $3.5 Billion/ year, so a c. $3 Billion bill by California looks great. But consider it over the 11 year time program life, and let’s see how it looks. By 2017 at a 20% per year growth rate, around its current historical pace, the industry will be roughly $26 Billion per year, and will have installed $138 Billion worth of solar panels. That makes this PUC program not an enabler of the solar industry, but a 2.5% drop in the bucket. And since we already spend $300 million or so a year in California subsidizing solar, it’s really just confirming more of the same the long-term. Nothing to shout about.
  2. And keep in mind, that $3 Billion dollars is not the whole cost. At $2.80/watt subsidy, the California consumer will still pay 2x that again out of its own pocket to put solar on their roofs. We’re still buying solar panels mind you, which are a 2-3x more expensive source of electricity than we currently use. We are definitely not saving money here for years if ever.
  3. Is the rationale reducing our greenhouse gas emissions? Not a very good argument. We already get a lot of our power from other states, either coal power dirtying their skies, or hydro with very little greenhouse gas impact. And besides, the quickest way to impact our greenhouse gas emissions is to deal with automotive emissions, 3,000 MW of solar 11 years out is barely a ripple in our power emissions over that time. Bottom line, there are better ways to reduce greenhouse gases.
  4. Now, I will accept the argument that we are building a local solar industry. Japan did it very successfully with long-term subsidy programs. But I’m not certain the state should be subsidizing it at this point. American investors have probably sunk on the order of $1 Billion in private capital into solar investments over the past few years and the industry is rapidly increasing capacity, all without the PUC making a move. The solar industry is the biggest bright spot in the cleantech sector. What we are really doing here is providing long term stability for a subsidized market, and guaranteeing that the IPO market for solar stays hot up so the venture capital investors who got in the last few years make a bundle.
  5. But the big issue from my perspective is this: last year the California “million solar roofs bill”, was defeated in the legislature. Partly because California’s finances are in such a messy state that legislators couldn’t agree that we could afford it, partly from partisan infighting. Now by a 3-1 vote, 4 unelected people on the PUC have enacted roughly the same program, at the same cost to the state (and us), by taxing us through our electric bill. And we never had a say. The amount may be small per household ($0.55 to $1.10 per month per household were among the range of estimates I found), but it is very definitely taxation by unelected officials. And I don’t care for that one bit.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for solar power, and I think this is a good program and a fair use of dollars long term for the industry and the state, I just don’t like the way it’s been done.

Personally, I’d just as soon let Germany continue to subsidize solar programs and soak up our exports until the price comes down, then after they’ve paid the cost, roll out a massive solar program for a fraction of the cost.

China and India – Laggards or Leaders?

Even among green enthusiasts there seems to be a feeling that our best efforts could be cancelled out by the growing energy demands of the developing world – particularly the massive economies of China and India which between them comprise 40 percent of the world’s people. This fear may prove unjustified if current trends continue and recent developments are carried to fruition. For example:

  • China’s solar industry already provides water heating for 35 million buildings.
  • India’s pioneering use of rainwater harvesting brings clean water to tens of thousands of homes and the country already has very active solar and wind industries.
  • China has contracted to convert over 10,00 diesel buses in 5 cities to run on hydrogen/natural gas.
  • The Chinese state energy company has pledged to spend at least $2.5bn on renewable energy projects over the next five years.
  • Just this month, China has passed a law that sets tariffs in favor of non-fossil energy such as wind, water and solar power and has set a goal of 15% renewables by 2020 – a massive target given the size of the economy!

Given China’s continued dependence on coal, some might say this is not sufficient but represents a huge commitment by economies struggling to develop and without repeating all the mistakes of the industrialized world. The WorldWatch Institute’s State of the World 20006 has a Special focus on India and China that reports on some of the strategies that China and India are starting to implement. It might just be that the Chinese and Indian pioneers are providing models for a new and sustainable economy and that we in the West are about to be leapfrogged!

Welcome to a New Blogger – Peter Beadle, Solar Exec and CEO of GreenJobs

I want to welcome our new blogger – Peter Beadle.

Peter is currently CEO of GreenJobs.com. He is an is an experienced technology executive and an expert on a wide range of green and energy technologies, including photovoltaics, fuel processing, fuel cells, and oil & gas technologies.

Peter holds a PhD in Physical Chemistry, and served President of BP Solar North America, launching and building the business to one of the largest in North America in the late 1990s. Prior to that he held a number of positions in R&D and technology management within British Petroleum.

Peter will be doing a Friday blog column around renewables.

The website for his current venture is http://www.greenjobs.com. Green Jobs is one of the few dedicated job sites for the renewables and cleantech industry. They put out the online Green Directory, as well as a weekly newsletter on People News in cleantech.

Welcome aboard, Peter.

The Forgotten Renewable Energy

When most people think of renewable energy, they think of hydro, or solar, or wind, or (increasingly) biomass. A few people think of geothermal. But that’s pretty much the list of renewables.

The most forgotten form of renewable energy, and one which I think holds more long-term promise than any other, is ocean-based energy.

The amount of energy that can be found in the ocean — thermal gradients, waves, tides, currents — is enormous, many times the amount required by the human species. As long as we have a sun and a moon (and when we don’t, we’ll have much bigger worries), then the ocean will contain a gargantuan amount of energy. And, it’s always there, day or night, almost completely predictable, unlike many other forms of renewables.

Of course, the challenge is to harness this energy in an economically viable fashion, and without causing adverse effects on marine life, aesthetics, shipping traffic, and so on. Scientists and engineers have been working on various technical approaches to capturing ocean energy for over two decades, and a lot of work remains to reach commercial viability. But, I believe that at least one of these technical approaches will eventually pay off in the next decade or so, and a big payoff it will be.

Believe it or not, unlike the masses and even energy industry experts, the Energy Policy Act of 2005 didn’t forget ocean energy technologies, including provisions for mandatory purchase requirements from ocean energy sources.

How did legislators manage to include ocean energy when everyone else had been overlooking it? Amazingly, it seems to have been because the companies in the ocean energy field — almost all early-stage privately-held companies, no big firms that you might have heard of — came together of their own volition to form the Ocean Renewable Energy Coalition. Web site Bully for them.

Let’s keep our eyes on ocean energy. I’m looking for much bigger things from the ocean in the future. It won’t remain forgotten for long.

Clean-Tech Investor Summit, 2006

If you haven’t tuned into it yet, the 2nd annual Clean-Tech Investor Summit is upon us, to be held Feb. 1-2, 2006 in Rancho Mirage, CA. The event is co-produced by my firm, Clean Edge. Last year’s event sold out, and this one should, too.

This year’s Summit features a solid line-up venture and private equity investors, corporate executives, entrepreneurs, and other notables, including a keynote from Thomas Werner, CEO of SunPower Corp. Werner’s address will be one of his first major presentation since SunPower’s highly successful IPO in November.

Other speakers include:

  • Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner, California Energy Commission
  • Donald L. Paul, CTO, Chevron Corp.
  • Hank Habicht, CEO, Global Environment & Technology Foundation
  • John Denniston, Partner, Kleiner Perkins
  • Matthew R. Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert
  • Paul Bieganski, Ph.D., Managing Director & CTO, Cargill Ventures
  • Ron Kenedi, VP of Solar Energy Solutions Group, Sharp
  • William K. Reilly, Former U.S. EPA Director

    I’ll be moderating a panel on corporate clean-tech strategies, featuring Ron Kenedi from Sharp, Ronald Pierantozzi from Air Products and Chemicals, and Juan-Antonio Carballo from IBM Venture Capital Group. My Clean Edge partner, Ron Pernick, will head up a session on how policy is shaping clean tech, with Hank Habicht of Capital E, and Dan Kammen of UC Berkeley’s Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory.

    You can download the most recent agenda Here.

    Those who register by January 12 can redeem a special $350 discount off the regular registration fee of $1495. Register today by contacting the IBF Registrar, Cathy Fenn, at (516) 765-9005, ext. 21 or e-mail cathy@ibfconferences.com. Be sure to mention “Clean Edge.” You may also register at the IBF website and use keycode “Clean Edge” to get the discount.

    Hope to see you there.